The Vaccine "Mandate"

Yesterday, Thursday September 9, 2021, President Joe Biden announced a new plan to impose rules through the Department of Labor, which would require all businesses with employees of 100 or more employees to ensure that their employees are vaccinated or tested weekly for Covid-19.  Non-compliance could result in thousands of dollars of fines for the company.  His plan also required vaccinations for all employees of the federal government and all contractors doing business with the federal government, as well as requiring vaccination for all workers in health care settings that receive Medicare and Medicaid funding.

Biden's plan is his strongest measure taken so far to combat the Covid-19 pandemic, with an estimated impact of 80 million workers in private businesses, 2.5 million federal employees, and 17 million health care workers.  With our fully vaccinated rate at just above half (54%), this is a great step in closing the gap and helping end this pandemic. 

The push mirrors what several large corporations have already done.  Disney, Tyson Foods, United Airlines, and a host of other companies are requiring vaccines for their workforce.  Even Fox News has required its employees to provide vaccination status in order to obtain a FOX Clearpass (or vaccination passport or what we used to just call an immunization record) to work without social distancing.  The employees of FOX News must either be vaccinated or complete a daily screen.

There are a couple of important points to note - first, this is not an individual vaccination mandate, as some are portraying it.  The government is not requiring that you do anything.  Your large corporate employer may require something of you, but the federal government is not.  If you work for a small business, there is no direct impact to you.  Further, if you do not comply, there will not be a federal penalty that you would incur.  You may risk your job, but there is no government action that would come against you.

Second, there is no actual mandate.  The new rules do not require only vaccination and provide no other alternative.  The rules explicitly say vaccinate or test frequently.  Here testing is spelled out to be weekly.  With both vaccination and testing being free, this is a low burden.  If you choose not to get vaccinated, you can test weekly and still meet the requirements for your company.

Additionally, it is likely there will be companies that do not comply with these rules, and would rather incur the fines.  I wouldn't count on this, but it will happen.  Look already at the number of states where the governors predictably have vowed to oppose these rules.  Surprise, surprise, the governors that have fought against any kind of common sense Covid-19 precautions are the same ones that are opposing these new rules.  There will be companies that do the same, for the same reason - because it is politically expedient to do so.

Now, for why this matters.  We know that vaccinations are our best solution for getting out of this pandemic.  While it would be wonderful to get upwards of 90% of our adult population vaccinated, we know that will never happen.  There are those that cannot get vaccinated because of other health concerns, and there are those that will never get vaccinated because of conspiracy theories, misplaced religious exemptions, and pseudo-science.  

The alternative to vaccination is testing and contact tracing.  It's knowing who has the virus and where it travels.  It's quarantining those with the virus and eliminating contact.  

That's easier said than done.

Look at all the people who say we should just let it run its course, and for us to do the common sense thing of staying at home if we're sick.  That really is common sense, but how many of us really do it?  If we're feeling off for a day, how many of us actually take our temperature every day to know if we are running a fever or not?  How many of us say "it's just allergies," or "it's just my sinuses," or "it's just a little cough," but don't really know for certain?  How many of us are conditioned to go into work regardless of how we feel?  Or do not have an option to take off as sick, because we do not have sick days or substitutes, or the like?  Or how many of us know we are sick and stay home from work, but still run into the store because we have no one else to pickup medicine or supplies for us?

How many people would say, if I stayed home every time I felt a little sick, I would never go into work?

We're terrible germ factories and we're terrible at keeping them contained.

So, if we're not going to get vaccinated to protect ourselves and to lessen our viral load, the least we can do is are the social distancing measures.  Wear a mask, keep six feet apart, test frequently to know whether we have the virus or not, quarantine for the whole duration if we do have it.  Etc. 

You know, all the things half of us fought tooth and nail against since the beginning of the pandemic.

As noted above, we see the fighting on this already starting.  Despite these fights, there is precedent for this type of exercise of power.  Washington required the first mass troop inoculation for smallpox.  The Supreme Court in Jacobson v. Massachusetts affirmed the states authority to enforce compulsory vaccination laws.  While that case was decided in 1905, the Court recently affirmed this decision in 1922 (Zucht v. King), 1944, (Prince v. Massachusetts), and 1995 (Veronia School District 47J v. Acton).  Jacobson has even been relied on by circuit courts in the Covid-19 pandemic, including the Fifth Circuit.  While this is a novel exercise of power, it is expected to be upheld based on this precedent.

Perhaps we'll finally start making some headway.  Maybe we'll finally take this seriously and focus on getting past it.  

One could hope.

Oscars, in the time of COVID-19

Sunday night marked the 93rd Academy Awards.  The ceremony was definitely impacted by the ongoing pandemic in more ways than one.  The location had changed from the traditional Dolby Theater in Hollywood to the Los Angeles Union Station.  A much smaller gathering of those nominated filled the limited space that they had, separated at tables by groups.  There were other "hubs" for Oscar nominees at theaters in locations like London for other nominees to be able to virtually appear from.  Still, several nominees were not able or comfortable attending at any location.

The production of the ceremony was likewise off.  They showed very few clips of the films that were nominated; those that were shown seemed random and sporadic.  There was no live orchestra, just QuestLove serving as DJ.  That meant no live scores, no live performance of the songs nominated, no live performance for the in memoriam montage.  

For the third year, the show had no single host, just a passing of the baton from presenter to presenter.  This was particularly noticeable with the poorly conceived "name that tune" bit asking if songs had won the award, were nominated, or were neither.  Given how little the ceremony ran over time this year, had they cut the "name that tune" bit, it would have landed right on time.

Most curious, the order of the ceremony was completely upended.  Best Director, which is usually awarded closely before Best Picture at the end, was awarded first.  Best Picture was not the last category awarded, but rather followed by the acting awards.  Even there, they forwent the tradition of last year's best actress giving the Best Actor award and vice versa.  This year, the previous winner in each category gave the award for that category.

This last bit seems to have garnered the most attention and controversy.  It seems to many that they were building to the Best Actor award as the finale, expecting a posthumous award to Chadwick Boseman for Ma Rainey's Black Bottom.  Instead, Anthony Hopkins was awarded for The Father. Hopkins had not attended. He had asked to stream in from his home but was denied.  So, the Academy accepted the award on his behalf, causing the ceremony to close with a whimper. 

I can’t subscribe to the rumor that the choice was deliberate, in the expectation of the posthumous award.  For one, there have been posthumous awards in the past and ones that have come so closely to the actor’s death that the impact was still being felt.  Heath Ledger’s posthumous award comes to mind.  And in those instances, the order of the proceedings was not altered. 

The rumor I have heard and lend more credence to, is that Joaquin Phoenix was running late. In an ordinary ceremony, he would have presented the award for Best Actress.  With him running late and not being present, they would have delayed both the best actor categories, as they usually go in pairs. This would explain the seemingly rushed Rita Moreno presenting Best Picture early and the visibly uncomfortable Phoenix who completely eschewed the format that had been established for presenting. 

A stage manager issue, as opposed to a producer issue. 

The result made the Oscars incredibly underwhelming. The lack of real surprises , the unconventional format, the weird structure issues, all made the broadcast land with a thud in a way that it has not done so before. 

The viewership numbers were not a surprise. The ceremony dropped below 10 million people for the first time in a long time, with viewership down 57% from the past year. This has led some conservative commentators to claim a Hollywood backlash finally paying off. As if America was finally done with Hollywood once and for all. 

The reality is a lot more mundane.  Despite this years films being largely more accessible to the general public through early access video on demand and streaming platforms, the individual films nominated were not that well known.  Unless you were following the award seasons and buzz, it is very likely the average American would jot have heard of any of the nominated films, much less have seen them. 

It’s a problem that has been plaguing the Oscars for years. Gone are the days when blockbuster films like Rocky or Star Wars are nominated for Best Picture. The films of today are still largely niche films primarily released in the late fall and early winter.  Oscar bait films. Until that changes, viewership of the ceremony will also remain a niche event. 

I still wish they’d just embrace it. Lean into the niche aspect of it and make it a true celebration of Hollywood and film. Bring back a host that makes it an even longer and grander celebration. Own what it is. 

Or at least do something interesting and make the Muppets the hosts, complete with running commentary by Statler and Waldorf. 

Whatever it is, next years ceremony just can’t be this dull. 

Shot #1

One down, one to go. 

I received my first dose of the Moderna vaccine today. Now scheduled for my second on May 6. 

I’m glad to join the ranks of the at least partially vaccinated. Indiana opened up vaccines those 40 and over while we were back in Texas and I signed up as soon as I could possibly do so.  They dropped the age limits even further during our stay and Jamie was able to get scheduled for next week. 

No real side effects to mention. My arm is sore, but so far, I’m no worse for wear.  So far the microchip isn’t even noticeable. 😉

But seriously, get vaccinated. I know for those in Texas, there aren’t too many limitations on who can get vaccinated - just an unwillingness to do so. 

Stay safe, wear your mask, get the shot. Let’s really beat this thing. 

Texas Uncovered

Well, I guess Texas really wants a fourth surge.  Citizens of Texas should start preparing now.

Yesterday, Govern Abbott issued an executive order lifting the state's mask mandate and occupancy restrictions.  "We must now do more to restore livelihoods and normalcy for Texans by opening Texas 100 percent."  Businesses are left to their own discretion regarding individual mask or social distancing requirements within their doors, but starting next Wednesday, March 10, 2021, any business in the state of Texas will be able to have 100% capacity with no mask requirement if they so choose.  It also removes any kind of enforcement capabilities local governments could have to enforce their own mask and social distancing requirements.

Meaning - Texas is taking off the mask come hell or high water.  And damn the consequences.

It's hard to write about this without being punchy, because it's so short sighted.  Yesterday, when Abbott made this announcement, Texas had 7,747 new cases.  271 new deaths from Covid-19.  Only around 7.5% of the population has been fully vaccinated.  Texas is no where near where it would need to be regarding potential herd immunity either from the virus or the vaccine to where it could start easing restrictions designed to stop this virus from running rampant.

The sad thing is, by easing restrictions in the name of "freedom," Texas is only making things more difficult for small business owners who want to continue to protect their employees and families by continuing a mask or social distancing requirement for their business.  Make no mistake, masks are still going to be required at your big national chains.  You will still have to wear a mask at Wal-mart.  You will still be asked to wear a mask at HEB.  And there will be small businesses who wish to continue to require it there as well.  What Abbott has done has encouraged entitled egotists to flaunt the requirements and provoke altercations with front line employees at those businesses.  

It's been sickening to scroll through Facebook and see the number of people praising this decision as if it were on the level of Texas Independence.  Or as if it "restored a fundamental freedom" on the level of the Civil Rights Act.  In reality, it revealed that we do not have it within us anymore to sacrifice for the greater good.  We do not have it in us anymore to care more for the people around us and make small concessions for their well-being.  It revealed that we don't have what it takes to endure a minor setback in the grand scheme of life.

That's the most frustrating aspect of the whole ordeal - we only had another few months to go through to where easing restrictions could start to make sense.  The announcement today indicated that vaccine production should be ramped up enough to where all American adults could get vaccinated by the end of May.  Two more months, and we could really start pulling things back and restoring normalcy, whatever that was.

But we can't wait.

Make no mistake, this was political theater.  It was designed to distract Texas from the utter failure that the Texas government displayed through their lack of preparation for a winter storm, not learning the lessons from 2011, and their total mishandling of the whole affair during the storm.

We're at that moment in Jaws where the citizens have caught a tiger shark and the mayor goes out and proclaims that everything is safe.  Everyone should go back out, everyone should go to the beach and visit Amity Island.  We need those tourist dollars.  Think of the Fourth of July.

That decision didn't work out well for the citizens of Amity and I fear this decision will not bode well for the citizens of Texas.

Stay safe.

Wear your mask, no matter what the governor may say.

Keep your distance.

There is light at the end of the tunnel; we just have to persevere.

Perspective

Monday wasn't the day for this, but it's important context nonetheless.

I ended Monday's post with the number of dead from the Pearl Harbor attack - 2,403 people.  That's why we never forget that day.  Why it is a date that will live in infamy.

We've crossed a threshold now this year that should be sobering to us.  Should shock us out of our comfort.

We're at a point in this pandemic where we have more people dying on a daily basis than died in the Pearl Harbor attack.  I'll restate that - we have the equivalent of a Pearl Harbor attack happening on a daily basis in this country from a virus that we have yet to get under control.

And we're quickly approaching the amount of deaths on 9/11 (2,977), looking to exceed it and possibly the San Francisco Earthquake of 1906 (3,000).

I don't know when or why we decided that the pandemic needed to be political.  Why it became expedient to decry it as a conspiracy.  Why we have people being intubated and dying, all the while proclaiming the virus is a hoax.

We have the potential of a very deadly December.  A very deadly winter.  We don't have to live in fear, but we should be cautious.  

Wear a mask.  Social Distance.  Take the precautions you can.

Stay safe and keep others safe.

"He never cared about us."

That stark reality comes from a quote from Trump's secret service.  They expressed their anger and frustration to the Washington Post on Friday, as the realities of Trump's infection were coming to light, revealing the pattern of behavior that has continued to put them at risk.  

Their words seem to echo a truth regarding Trump's view of the rest of America - he doesn't care about us. 

Beyond the extent to which he can use us.

This isn't really the topic I would like to be writing about, but it seems necessary, if for no other reason than to update and correct inaccuracies in Friday's blog post.  Over the past couple of days, several new pieces of information have come to light regarding the timeline of Trump's Covid-19 infection and the impact that it has had.

First, it seems that Trump was infected a lot earlier than we thought.  Trump's doctors revealed yesterday that he was 72 hours into his diagnosis.  This means he would have tested positive on Wednesday morning at the latest.  This means he would have knowingly traveled to his campaign rally Wednesday night and to his fundraising roundtable on Thursday while being positive for the virus.  He did not wear a mask or social distance at these events.

And again, this is the latest that the president would have shown to be positive.  There are indications he may have been positive before or at least believed he could test positive before.

Second, Trump was not tested before the first presidential debate by the event site.  Under the guidelines for the event, all other people in the hall had to be tested on site, but the candidates and their traveling parties could either be tested on site or could relay a test from their campaign.  The Trump family arrived too late to be tested on site from the Cleveland Clinic.  The Trump team instead relayed that they had their own negative test results obtained from their campaign.  

This is important, as it plays to the credibility of the Trump campaign.  Did they provide truthful information regarding the president's status?  This shouldn't be a question that is needed to be raised, but given the president's track record, it is one that we are left with.  

Further, this is especially important in light of the Trump family's refusal to wear masks at the presidential debate.  While everyone was expected to be on an honor code to wear masks and social distance, the Trump family refused.  Did their actions potentially expose many more to the virus?

Again, this matters because the likely root of the infections in the Trump team seem to stem from the Rose Garden announcement of Amy Coney Barrett as nominee for the Supreme Court on Saturday, September 26, 2020.  This event seems to be a super-spreader, with at least eight reported cases stemming from the event, including likely Hope Hicks, whose announcement started this process, and the president himself.  There were 180 people at the event; only 50 of whom were social distancing or wearing masks.  The others were packed into the event, with handshakes, hugs, and close chatting.

To put this in perspective, with Trump's announcement, twelve members of his team have also revealed their positive diagnosis for the virus.   Eight were at this event.  And this would put the president's potential infection much further back than revealed.

It is part of a continued pattern of misinformation, that is still occurring to date, with details on the president's current health status being particularly obscured. Saturday's briefing left a lot of people confused.  It contained references to 72 hours and 48 hours instead of Day 3 and Day 2 of treatment respectively.  The briefing reported that Trump was doing very well, but later was updated to say the next 48 hours would be critical for Trump's recovery.  Today's briefing revealed that Trump's temperature was high, that his lung scans show unexpected findings, Trump is on a steroid recommended for severe and critical cases only, and his oxygen levels had dropped on Friday and again on Saturday.  There are still no updates on fever or oxygen level and has been a refusal for additional information on his status, a refusal to answer questions.

It makes it very hard to know what to believe, as we truly enter into the unknown.  Will the president be quarantined or under intense care up to the election?  What happens if the president is incapacitated and the 25th amendment must be invoked during this time?  If the worst happens, what happens if he dies?

At such a critical time it would seem to be imperative we had a trustworthy presence.  A leader to emerge to remind us the process is under control.  A reassuring hand that reminds us that he cares.  A president who shows us the way to move forward.

Instead, we've seen the cavalier attitude that he had up to this point and we are reminded of one singular thought -

"He never cared about us."  

Trump Infected

Tonight, @FLOTUS and I tested positive for COVID-19. We will begin our quarantine and recovery process immediately. We will get through this TOGETHER!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 2, 2020

President Trump and First Lady Melania have tested positive for Covid-19.  Just two hours after posting that advisor Hope Hicks had tested positive, Trump revealed the news on Twitter at 1:30 am ET this morning.   

If the timeline is to be understood correctly, the implications are a little troubling.  Apparently, Hicks had tested negative on Wednesday, September 30, 2020, before she boarded Air Force 1 with the president and most of his closest advisers, but had developed symptoms during the day.  A second test on Thursday morning, October 1, 2020, was positive.  This indicates that she was likely infected on Wednesday, though at a low enough rate to test negative.  Nonetheless, the president and his team flew to New Jersey on Thursday, where he attended a fundraiser, gave a speech, and attended a roundtable with supporters, all, of course, without a mask.  

This raises several questions.  We know Trump was tested Tuesday night before the debate and tested negative.  Could he have been in a similar situation as Hicks, where he was infected, though at a low enough rate to test negative?  Did Trump catch the virus from Hicks or vice versa?

How many of his team are likewise infected?  There were eighteen others from his team aboard Air Force One on Wednesday, including all his children and their spouses, with the exception of Barron.  At the debate on Tuesday, this entourage, including Hicks and four older Trump children, refused to wear masks despite the mandate that they do so.  What are the transmission implications of their actions?

This is all extremely frustrating from an administration that has refused to take this virus seriously.  From a President who has refused to be seen wearing a mask in public, who admitted to underplaying the severity of the virus in order to prevent a panic, who even as recent as the debate on Tuesday stated that "It affects virtually nobody."

It is this background that creates a bit of concern as to whether this is a "boy who cried wolf" scenario.  This president lies so frequently and so readily, that it is hard to trust that he actually means what he says, especially on serious issues like this.  Twitter users in particular noted that someone had suggested this very scenario back in September as a way for Trump to steal headlines with an "October surprise."  This would allow him to take the spotlight away from Biden, to avoid further potential embarrassment and damage at the next debate, to emerge victorious over the virus as a show of strength, and then to claim credit for a new treatment that had cured him, likely hydroxychloroquine, in which he is over-invested.

Because of his record, it's not hard to imagine Trump doing exactly that.  Cornell University studied more than 38 million articles regarding the coronavirus pandemic between January 1 and May 26 that were published in English and showed that Trump was "likely the largest driver of...Covid-19 misinformation."  37.9% of misinformation regarding the virus mentioned Trump.

So we have a president, in the at risk categories for the severe form of the virus, who has not taken it seriously to date, infected with just weeks to go before the election.

"Surprise"

Although, I guess not really.

This should serve as a reminder to everyone:

• Wash your hands
• Wear a mask
• Socially distance from others
• Take care of yourself

and most importantly,

VOTE

• Vote now
• Vote early
• Research and be prepared to vote fully down ballot

VOTE

We often say vote as if your life depended on it.  This time, it might actually be literally true.

I wish the president and all a speedy recovery.   I pray they do not suffer the major infections that have been seen with this virus.  They will have the best medical care possible.  

Hopefully, this time, they will heed that advice.

That's Enough 2020

You know, we've handled the quarantine.  We've handled masks.  We've handled social distancing and work from home.  This may be a step too far.

Dr. Pepper is having a shortage.

We know it’s harder to find Dr Pepper these days. We’re working on it – hang tight! 

Note: This applies to all flavors of Dr Pepper – including our newest permanent addition to the family, Dr Pepper & Cream Soda. pic.twitter.com/Kf0UedMuiw

— Dr Pepper (@drpepper) August 10, 2020

Dr. Pepper is my coffee.  I've never really developed a taste for hot beverages, coffee even less so.  For a dose of caffeine, the Dr. is my drug.

I'm working on drinking far less of it and trying to limit it to the weekends at most, but this week is a semi-staycation and with the big birthday coming up, it's been a little more regular in our house.  

It's my addiction.  Not a good one, as if there are any good addictions, but at times a necessary one.  It keeps me awake on long road trips.  It helps combat the grogginess after a long night.  

It's the perfect pair for a hamburger, or pizza.

It's a taste of Texas in our new home.

It's making this pandemic bearable.

At this point, can we go back to the toilet paper shortage.

Seriously, it's time to go stock up.   

So, again, enough 2020.  No more.

Let's turn this around and move on to happier things.

Mitchuation: Tested

A little delay in posting a bit.  We've fought off a little bit of sickness around the house.  Last week, Avalyn and Jude got sick with cold like symptoms. Avalyn ran a fever for about a day and a half and had a bit of congestion.  Jude had a nose that ran like a faucet, with a wet cough.  They got sick early in the week, so of course by the week's end, it moved to Jamie and I.  

Jamie just had a day of a sore throat, and recovered completely otherwise.  I started with a sore throat on Thursday and then had a light continuous headache with lightheadedness over three days of the weekend.  Not too fun.  

So by day three of headache and lightheadedness, I went to the clinic to get checked out.  And part of that included a lovely COVID-19 test.  I could feel them tickle my brain.  Thankfully I only had to get one nostril done.  I don't know if I would have been able to sit still through the second.

Thankfully, the results came back negative Tuesday.  A likely viral infection, but not that one.  Still out of an abundance of caution, because of the possibilities of a false negative, I've been sequestered inside.  That should end soon.

Generally, I've just been tired this week.  So, I've let a few things slip.  Like more regular posts.

Things will be picking up again now.  Work is definitely increasing with a several projects moving up in the timeline, requiring a few different machines running at the same time to keep it all going forward.  Avalyn is getting ready to start school.  She's gotten to see the building and found out who her teacher will be.   So, we have that transition to look forward to.

We're now under a state wide mask mandate.   Again, it will not really change how we have been operating outside of the house.  Hopefully, it will help curb some of the future spread, especially as schools start again.

We have seen our plans change a bit though.  We had looked forward to a get away in the Smokies with Jamie's family.  It had been planned since last year and was going to be almost a family reunion.  Due to the current COVID-19 situation in Tennessee and the ability of the resort to adapt, that will no longer be happening.  

We do have a silver lining with this though.  A lot of Jamie's immediate family will be coming up to spend the week with us.  We are very much looking forward to this.  We're ready to show them around to the extent we can, let them try the foods we've come to love, and give them a bit of a taste of the place we call home.  Capped off by a pretty big celebration.

It's going to be an interesting few weeks ahead.

Covid-19 - What We've Learned

Just as important as it is to look at what we know about the Covid-19 situation, it is also vital to look at what lessons we have learned from its impact.  A few lessons we can hope to take from this time and implement for our future coming out of this.  For if we come through this experience and everything looks exactly the same as it was before, then we have failed.

• Teachers are vastly underpaid for what they do - They have had to completely overhaul their lesson plans for the year.  They have all had to move online with no notice.  I think all parents have come to realize how much teachers are doing.  How much we ask of them.  And yet there are still some that are going to be cutting their funding in the fall.

• Online learning has a greater role to play going forward - While no one wants to go forward with online school forever, it is a tool that can be utilized in a much greater capacity.  I know Indiana uses it to make up snow days.  Perhaps southern states could use them for storm days.  Or perhaps lessons could be recorded for the benefit of those who are out on school activities, out sick, etc.  If not recorded lessons, perhaps a digital equivalent or digital alternative.  Having virtual prepared lessons for alternative education programs.  There is a place for this and it will increase going forward.

• Those we paid the least are essential, and should be treated as such - During this time, we really depended on a lot of workers that earn minimum wage.  Perhaps it's really time to admit that they deserve a living wage.  That our $7.25 per hour minimum wage is far too low, especially given that it largely impacts services we depend on.  We also should be moving away from tipped based waitstaff to the raised minimum wage for waitstaff.

• Broadband internet is a public utility and needs to be available as such - For work from home, for school from home, we've seen the great need for not just internet access, but high-speed internet access across this country.  This is the next great utility expansion and we should be doing all we can to achieve this.  Broadband internet access at this point literally makes the difference in access to the future for our younger populations.  Let's equip them all.

• Work from Home should be more common going forward - With the adaptations we've had to make, and seeing the proof that people can be productive and about their jobs while working from home, work from home should likewise become a tool for most businesses that is used for much greater effect.  For sick days when you are contagious but don't really feel too bad, you could work from home to stop from spreading a cold, the flu, etc.  For days when you need to run an errand, go to a doctor's appointment closer to your house, etc.  For days when you need to watch your kid because they cannot be at school or at day care.  For days when you need a mental health break away from your coworkers.  Work from home should become a larger part of employee benefits in certain types of jobs.

• Virtual Family Hangouts - Part of this is our move, but we've also been on more FaceTimes, more group FaceTimes, Google Hangouts, etc. with our family in this time.  And this has been true of others as well.  Because it has been difficult to physically see them at all, it has been important for us to at least see them virtually.  We need to keep that up when things get back to normal as well.

• First hours for the elderly or at risk populations are good ideas - Grocery stores and big box stores offering early morning hours for older populations or for at risk populations to shop in a lower capacity, lower risk environment remain easy ways to care for the most at risk among us, even beyond the Covid-19 crisis.  It is a very small sacrifice that could be made to benefit those populations in a tangible way.  

• Live-streaming or online recordings should be a practice of every church going forward - As most churches have adapted in some way to bringing worship online into live streaming and recorded formats, it should remain a tool available to them going forward.  The ability for members to view sermons and worship and remain connected when they must travel.  The opportunity for the home bound to participate in worship with their home church.  It's just another tool in the arsenal.  Even for the smallest church.  It doesn't have to be overproduced. A teenager with a stabilizer and an iPhone recording the service will suffice.  

• Churches can be more active during the week - What I have been heartened by the most in this process, are the churches that have increased their workloads during this crisis.  That have added near daily communications with their members through daily devotionals whether written or video, through live stream prayer services, through virtual music services either mornings or evenings.  Through Zoom parties.  And so on and so on.  These can and should still continue.  It's another way to keep reaching out.  To keep people connected and to keep encouraging the saints.

• Our Healthcare system must be overhauled - This process has revealed deep issues in our healthcare system.  States having to barter and trade, to literally out bid other states to get needed PPE.  States circumventing our federal government and working directly with other countries like South Korea to get needed tests.  The staggering amount of medical debt that Covid-19 survivors will be saddled with.  We can be proud in the way the emergency responders, the doctors, and the nurses have responded, but we can also acknowledge the need to create a better system around them.
• We can have an impact on our environment - If there was any doubt that man has an impact on the environment and our ability to harm it or to improve it, it has been removed.  Look at all the pictures of locations across the globe where some sights have been visible for the first time thanks to the reduction of smog resulting from the stay at home orders.  Carbon monoxide is down 50% in New York, nitrogen dioxide down by 30% in China.  Stars are visible in Dehli.  Mount Kenya can be seen for 85 miles now. Venice canals are sparkling.  We've seen that changes can be made.  So it falls to us to see what changes can be sustained and how we can positively impact things in the future.  Greater work from home, less commuting can definitely help.

• We all need to be outside more - We know the healthier you are, the less the virus affects you.  Being outside, getting more vitamin D, getting more exercise are all things that can help us be healthier.  All things we can use more of and things we've been doing as ways to keep from going stir crazy in quarantine.  It's something that should be kept going forward.  Plus, it's tougher for the virus to spread outdoors, so it is a good way to help curb the future spread.

I could go on for pages more, but this is a good start of things we should keep from this.  What's your list?  What would you like us to keep from this time?  What lessons should we learn?

Covid-19 - What We Know

As we're facing a time of transition with the current global situation, it seems a good time to reflect on a couple of important points: what we know and what we've learned.  I think it is especially true given how much there is that we actually do not know about this disease, the future, and how to proceed.  These are important grounding tools when facing uncertainty, focusing on what information we do know and what lessons we hopefully have learned in the process.

Today, we look at what we do know about this virus and the global response.  Please note, this information likely can and will change as we continue to learn more about this virus and its effects.

• Covid-19 is highly contagious - Though an exact transmission rate is hard to pin down, we do know that the R0 rate is over 1.0.  This means 1 infected person infects multiple people.  Generally, it is ideal for the R0 rate to be below 1.0.  That would mean the virus would die out on its own.  If the R0 were 0.5 for instance, 100 people infect 50 people, who then infect 25 people, who then infect 13, and so on, and so on.  The numbers keep decreasing.  In March, the World Health Organization put the R0 rate for Covid-19 between 2.0 and 2.5.  This would mean 100 people would infect 200 would would then infect another 400 who would then infect 800, etc.  You can see how quickly it could spread.  It is important to note that, as with most things regarding this virus, the R0 value is highly localized and changes over time.  As people get infected and recover, the R number drops, and that's the goal for our facing the virus.  Covid-19's number has varied from around 0.4 to 5.5 or more, depending on location and time.  

• It is most likely transmitted through droplets - From the CDC, "The virus that causes COVID-19 is thought to spread mainly from person to person, mainly through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs or sneezes. These droplets can land in the mouths or noses of people who are nearby or possibly be inhaled into the lungs. Spread is more likely when people are in close contact with one another (within about 6 feet)."  This is why face coverings over the mouth and nose, social distancing of more than 6 feet apart, and hand-washing and proper hygiene are so important.  They reduce the likelihood droplets will be transferred from person to person.  Face coverings keep your droplets closer to you.  It's a barrier from you spreading them farther away.  Social distancing greater than 6 feet increases the distance a droplet would have to travel, decreasing the likelihood it would reach another person.  Proper hand-washing and keeping your hands away from your face prevents transmitting droplets from your hands to your mouth and nose.  

• You can transmit the disease even though you have no symptoms - While people are thought to be most contagious when they are symptomatic (feverish, coughing, sour throat, etc.), asymptomatic carriers are the great danger of this disease.  You can spread it without ever even knowing you had it.  This is particularly true of younger populations.  Children, teenagers, young adults can all transmit the disease but feel no ill effects.  This is another reason why wearing face coverings, social distancing, and proper hygiene are so important, even among those who appear to be healthy.

• Though high contagious, most people will have no to mild effects - Though the disease can be easily transmitted, only around 7-15% of the infected are getting a serious version of the disease.  The vast majority of people become infected will have mild symptoms, if they experience symptoms at all.  For those with more moderate symptoms, it can feel like a prolonged or more severe flu.  Only a small percentage of the population gets a more serious version of the disease.  Unfortunately, that more serious version of the disease is lethal.

• For those that do get sicker, the virus is lethal - The global mortality rate for Covid-19 is around 6%.  That means 40%-80% of serious cases are lethal.   That's largely because...

• We do not know how to treat this virus - This virus is presenting in ways that doctors have never seen.  We do not have a known medicine to administer to treat.  Recent tests on hydroxychloroquine, the one drug that has been mentioned the most, have not been promising, with seriously ill patients being more likely to die on the drug than off.  Further, the disease is presenting in several different ways.  For example, for some young people, their first symptom of the virus has been a stroke, given the blood clotting effects of the virus.  Doctors are confronting things they've never seen before.  "Happy hypoxemics," or patients with abnormally low levels of oxygen, but able to breathe relatively easily.  The one thing we do know, is that the virus affects certain populations much more severely - the elderly and those with underlying conditions.  94% of the deaths related to Covid-19 have had underlying conditions.

• America has a lot of underlying conditions - we have one of the worst diets globally, we are the 12th most obese country in the world, and around 12th in heart disease.  This is suspected to be the reason we are seeing more Covid-19 cases among younger populations. 

• Covid-19 has reached all corners of the globe - There are Covid-19 cases on every continent across the globe, with the exception of Antarctica.  5,563,260 cases of Covid-19 worldwide, 346,680 deaths.  Virtually every country on the planet has been faced with this crisis and they are reacting to it in a variety of ways.  Rest assured, the lockdown, its duration, frustration with the government response, these are not unique problems to the United States of America.  Everyone is struggling with how to respond, what to do, how to react and balance issues related to the virus with economics and other considerations.

• The Covid-19 Crisis is not over - the virus is not dead, nor is it cured.  It is still spreading, though thankfully at slower rates due to the measures that were taken.  There will be a likely second wave come the fall/winter.  There will be spikes as more things open up.  We will still be working at finding effective treatments and a vaccine.  

These are all important to remember in order to contextualize why we have taken the steps that we did.  Why things closed.  Why we wear masks.  Why we social distance.  It's particularly for those among us that are most at risk.  Because those who get a serious effects from the virus are very likely to die.  Especially given that we don't know how to treat this virus, yet.  We take every precaution we can so that we are not the carrier of the virus to someone who cannot handle it.  

We remember this to remember we are doing all of this, taking these steps and precautions for the benefit of other people.  

For the greater good.

E pluribus unum.

Tomorrow, what we have hopefully learned from this virus and the effects it has made on society.

Your Right to Worship Was Not Infringed

I'm going to get some mail on this one, so let's jump right into it.

Much ado has been made over the past couple of days that President Trump has "opened up" the churches.  

"The governors need to do the right thing and allow these very important essential places of faith to open right now -- for this weekend.  If they don't do it, I will override the governors."

"In America, we need more prayer not less."

"Some governors have deemed the liquor stores and abortion clinics as essential.  But have left out churches and other houses of worship.  It's not right.  So I'm correcting this injustice and calling houses of worship essential."

These are really nice sounding words that are essentially meaningless.  They accomplish nothing but pandering to his base.  It's unclear that he has any authority to accomplish any of this, but it makes for a good sound byte.

On a grander scale, these comments get to the root of some fundamental misunderstandings regarding the whole issue. 

• That's Not How Federalism Works - One of the issues that has dogged us through the entire Covid-19 pandemic is the United States of America is not one monolithic whole.  We are, for better and worse, a collection of differences.  Different races, different religions, different regions, different geographies, different proximities, and different states.  Our government is a republic comprised of 50 very different states, and we have generally preferred a reservation of a lot of key issues to the state level.  That has included how to handle emergency situations.  In this pandemic, stay-at-home orders, emergency declarations, lockdowns, etc. have all been handled at the state and local level.  Trump forcing states to open back up would be as gross an overreach of federal power as it would have been to institute a national lockdown.  Of course, that's the hypocrisy of the Republican Party.  It preaches limited federal government, so long as it accomplishes their purposes.  If it needs the big federal government to step in for its goals, well then, all is fair.

• That's Not How Our Rights Work in America - The loudest voices raised surrounding this issue have alleged that our absolute rights to freedom of assembly and free exercise of worship have been infringed.  That the government should do nothing to stand in our way, under absolutely no circumstances can or should they interfere, and that this has all been a gross overreach of power in opposition to the Constitution.  Plus, that it's likely a trial run for shutting down churches in the future.  Have to throw in a good conspiracy into there.  All of this presumes that the government does not add limitations to any of the rights we have under the Bill of Rights.  That is false.  The government places limitations on all of our rights in that document.  You can't yell fire in a crowded theater.  There are limitations on who can own guns.  Your worship cannot include human sacrifice.  The tests has never been whether or not government action places any limitation on our rights.  The test has always been whether it has been reasonable.  (That's a gross simplification, as there are different standards for the different rights, but reasonableness covers a lot of it).  The test for free exercise is a compelling interest.  If the government places a burden on the practice of religion, does it have a compelling interest in doing so?   Public health and safety has been found to be a compelling interest.  Plus, the shut downs had the benefit of being limited in durations, neutrally applied (they didn't single out churches, the rules applied to everyone), and never actually required the churches to be closed.  That's right - the shut down orders didn't require them to close, they just put limitations on the numbers that could be present.  Ten or fewer still could have gathered.  This point is the one that makes me so frustrated when people share the false claim that mosques were open in New York City but not churches.  It was a purposefully misleading headline that fooled a lot of people.  The mosques had less than ten people in at a time praying.  Christian churches had the ability to do the same thing.  But that's an inconvenient point. 

At this point, I think it's probably time to make the most controversial statement in this whole post - If you are a Christian, your right to free exercise of religion has not been infringed by this whole process.

I'll shout it a little louder for those in the back.

IF YOU ARE A CHRISTIAN, YOUR RIGHT TO FREE EXERCISE OF RELIGION HAS NOT BEEN INFRINGED.

And that's because of point number 3 -

• That's Not How Worship Works - If you believe that your right to worship has been infringed, I would offer that you fundamentally do not understand what worship is.  Worship has nothing to do with being in the building on Sunday morning.  It does not need a pastor.  It does not need a worship leader/music minister/song leader/whatever you want to call them.  It does not need other people around you.

Worship is not a service you attend.

Worship is a way of life.  It's something you should be doing every day.  Every hour, every second.

It's why Stonepoint always ended with "Have a Great Week of Worship."  It was a recognition that what happened on Sunday morning was only a brief blip in the worship of a believer.

And even if your entire focus was on Sunday morning, there were still so many options available to you to create that experience.  Worship music is available on every radio and all over the net.  Biblical teaching can be found online or on the radio or television from so many sources.  Full sermons and worship services can be streamed from a plethora of great churches across this country.  Even small little country town churches began sending messages and devotionals out online.

Even if all that was not accessible, you still had the option of family worship.  For where two or three gather in His name, there He is.  That can be church.

If we are going to complain about missing some key point of Christian living, let's at least use the right terminology.  We're missing fellowship, not worship.  And I get it, fellowship is important.  I'm missing it too.  But there have been ways to accomplish this virtually to help slow and stop the spread of this virus.  To not do more harm than good. 

Further, fellowship is not something that should be limited to Sunday either. The early church continually met in the homes of each other.  Our Christian fellowship may have been impacted, but it should not have stopped during this time.

Let's remember why this restriction was imposed on church buildings in the first place.  Churches generally have larger populations of older people.  Those that are more at risk.  There are some churches that may be primarily serving elderly populations.  Or your church may be one where the elderly come into close contact with the very young - those that may be carriers but not at risk for the deadly effects of the virus.  

There have been a couple of examples that have displayed the risk very well.  In Arkansas, a pastor and his wife attended church related events on March 6 through March 8.  At the time, they didn't have symptoms.  They later developed respiratory symptoms and fever on March 10 and 11, later confirmed to be Covid-19.  During the church related events, the pastor and wife came in contact with 92 people.  At least 35 of the 92 people they came in contact with acquired Covid-19.  That's 38%.  Three of those people died.  Further, those 35 infected people were confirmed to infect 26 other people. One of which died.

Likewise, in Washington, in late March 60 people attended a choir rehearsal.  No one was exhibiting symptoms.  No one appeared to be sick.  And yet, 45 attendees contracted Covid-19 from the rehearsal.  Two died.

These stories could happen at any church across America right now.  We still have a virus that has no cure or no vaccine.  A virus that we know little about that is highly contagious.  And while it is mild for the vast majority of people that contract it, for those that do get sick from it, it is lethal.  Lethal without any known ways to manage it.

I don't know, I suppose I'm just punchy.  Getting tired of armchair Constitutional scholars.  The one that really got me was someone indignant at the thought that churches were impacted, but yet self-admitting that they do not attend anywhere, nor are they in a hurry to do so.  The coopting of "religion" for political gain.

This should have been a point where we were different.  Where we stuck out because of how well the Church adapted.  How well it went to work aiding those around them, like I have seen so many churches do.

Not just standing around griping and complaining, waiting for things to be exactly as they were before, as I've seen far to many do.

For Such A Time As This

"As soon as you see the ark of the covenant of the Lord your God being carried by the Levitical priests, then you shall set out from your place and follow it.  Yet there shall be a distance between you and it, about 2,000 cubits in length.  Do not come near it, in order that you may know the way you shall go, for you have not passed this way before."

Joshua 3:3-4

This past Sunday, the church that we will be joining focused on this passage above for its message.  It focused on identifying what to do when you find yourself at a place that is unfamiliar.  When you don't know the way forward.  When life doesn't go as planned.  The lesson from Joshua being that the Lord led the way for His people forward, and He is still doing it today.

The pastor discussed a bit of the church's history over the past two years and how it had prepared them for this current crisis.  The church has strong roots in the town, founded in 1837 as Brownsburg Christian Church.  It has been growing and changing over the past 163 years.  

Now, this church is big.  Five thousand to six thousand, five hundred members/attenders.  Six services.  The church campus looks like a school campus in size.  It's close to mega church.  But when we consider the demographics of the community around it, it's proportionately size to the town and surrounding area.  For example, it would reach the same size percentage as Stonepoint does in Wills Point and Edgewood.

Two years ago, the church found itself at a decision point.  Given the church's growth and trajectory, it was time to think towards expansion.  Most of the elders and members assumed this would occur in the way this normally occurs.  Satellite campuses.  Church split to found another church in another location.  Etc.

Pastor John Dickerson had a different vision.  He knew God wanted them to go a different path.  He saw a much needed investment in digital technology.  Envisioning the churches expansion path forward in a virtual world.  To get services and more online and accessible, so that the church could have a world-wide reach.  This included live streaming services, updating the churches webpage to be more accessible and interactive.  Designing apps for various platforms to provide a centralized location for sermons and services, as well as modifying them for upload on popular platforms like Facebook and Youtube.  I've recently discovered their AppleTV app for example.  We were previously watching on TV via Facebook Watch.

This required a new way of thinking.  New equipment, new service roles.  It was an entirely different picture of how to proceed.  A completely new path.

And at the time, the need was not as easily recognizable.  Two years ago, who could have imagined the need for great numbers of people to experience church virtually.  

Here we are.

While Pastor John focused on Joshua, I kept thinking of Esther.  Esther was a young Jewish girl, taken into sex slavery, to be a concubine for the king, one of his "queens," who ended up capturing his attention.  It's not exactly the future she might have imagined for herself.  And yet, it's that very situation that put her in a position to save her people.

"And who knows whether you have not come to the kingdom for such a time as this?"

Esther 4:14b

Pastor John had the vision for the future, yes, and it was a digital vision that would be beneficial regardless of the times.  But it especially prepared the church for such a time as this.  It was a bold move in the past that made them particularly suited to grow and to help so many people in this crisis.  They've shared story after story of blood drive, of PPE drives, of food drives, of donations that are occurring and possible now because of their obedience then.

It prepared them to easily transition into virtual church.  To add services so that the members stay connected during this time.  To add a Thursday night worship service.  Virtual prayer services.  Etc.  Welcome Meetings over Zoom.  Small group meetings over Zoom.  To make a big church feel small.

While it would have been great to be able to go into a church when we moved here and get to know it, we still feel connected to this new body and know this is the place we are called to attend.  We have felt connected to them and they have been reaching out to us to check on us during this time.

No one expects a global pandemic, but they were prepared.

I think back over our own story the past year and how God prepared us for such a time as this.  How we would not have been able or in any position to move, if Jamie didn't know it was time to take a break from teaching and focus on Avalyn and Jude.  If I didn't lose my job.  I can look at how I've been prepared to work from home during this crisis at a brand new job and not be anxious, because I was already doing so in project work for months before we moved.

If we listen, if we follow, if we are obedient, God prepares us for the path ahead.  He sends His covenant ahead of us to show us the way.  And He teaches us along the way to be prepared for whatever situation He is leading us into.

How has God prepared you for such a time as this?  

And then the next question, are you stepping out and doing what He has prepared you for?  

Or are you hoping this moment will pass you by?

CDC on Reopening School

As I'm sure you have seen by now, the Center for Disease Control has released guidelines for schools to use in reopening.  They are already generating a lot of discussion, mostly negative, but I think there are a few important points to keep in mind.

1. Check The Source - If you are going to comment on the guidelines, please be sure you are getting them from the CDC directly.  They can be found at this link - https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/schools-childcare/schools.html.  Please don't trust other posts on social media that are trying to summarize the guidelines.  For example, the blue background image below contains a lot of false information that is not in the CDC guidelines, such as presenting items as absolutes instead of a series of preferences. For example, regarding communal shared spaces, the CDC guidelines are not just to close them, but to close if possible, otherwise disinfect.  Likewise, it overstates the guidelines on sharing objects.  CDC recommendations are to limit sharing of objects that are difficult to clean or disinfect.  I know the image is supposed to be shorthand, but it really overstates the guidelines that have been promulgated.  Plus, it misspells guidelines right off the bat (guidlines).
2. Remember, They Are Guidelines - The CDC has no authority to enforce these guidelines.  They are meant for public consumption and adaptation to the local environment.  This is even written in the guidelines themselves.  "Schools can determine, in collaboration with state and local health officials to the extent possible, whether and how to implement these considerations while adjusting to meet the unique needs and circumstances of the local community. Implementation should be guided by what is feasible, practical, acceptable, and tailored to the needs of each community."  Emphasis mine.  The CDC's job is to present the most comprehensive guidelines possible that will have the greatest impact on preventing the spread of this disease.  It's just like when Dr. Fauci recommends social distancing measures until a vaccine is created.  It's what the scientists do.  That is their function.  They make the recommendations that will have the greatest impact.  It's up to the local governing bodies to determine how these guidelines actually get put to use.  I have no doubt some schools may actually implement all these steps.  Some schools may implement very few of them.  We do not know yet how that will play out.  Especially given the time factor.
3. These Guidelines Are For Right Now - meaning they can and likely will change.  These are not the guidelines for reopening schools in the fall.  These are guidelines for opening schools now.  Again, from the very opening of the guidelines, "As some communities in the United States open K-12 schools, CDC offers the following considerations for ways in which schools can help protect students, teachers, administrators, and staff and slow the spread of COVID-19."  We're conditioned to thinking this is fall because we know the schools around us have largely closed for the remainder of the school year.  That is not what the CDC is considering.  They have to factor in schools that may be reopening.  Schools that need to hold summer school.  Schools that are considering opening in a couple of weeks to finish.  Etc, etc, etc.  The guidelines as promulgated are what would be recommended to open a school right now.  That guidance could look very different by August, based on what we will learn about this virus in two months time.  We are continuing to fill in gaps in our knowledge regarding Covid-19 and will continue to do so over the coming months.  

I know some schools are already indicating how things will look in the fall semester.  The University of Texas has indicated that students should plan to come and be on campus from August to November, but plan to have class virtually from after Thanksgiving on to finish the semester.  While it's good to plan, that's likely premature given how wide the gap between what we know and what we do not about this virus.

We're still learning and will continue to do so.  We will continue to adapt based on what we learn.  It's how we proceed.  School may look different from what we are used to, but it doesn't mean that the whole set of guidelines listed now will be needed come the fall.  I know everyone is anxious, I know everyone wants to get back to "normal," whatever that means.  And, we'll get there.  It may not be as fast as everyone wants, but we'll get there.

In the interim, let's keep calm.  Let's be cautious.  Let's be gracious. 

Mitchuation Update - Quarantine Fun

As Indiana and the Indianapolis begins to lift restrictions, I thought I would give an update on how things are going here.  We are all moved in.  Everything is in its place, pictures are on the wall, and murals are painted. 

It's really starting to feel like home.

We've been safely getting to explore a bit of Brownsburg.  There is an amazing trail system here and we've been walking it a lot.  Getting bikes and looking forward to biking the trails as well.  We've been continuing takeout Tuesday and discovering a bunch of great places to eat here.  Unique, local restaurants with great food.  We've found the best donuts we've ever had at Hilligoss Bakery.  Discovered a great ice cream shop at Mandy's.  A great local coffee shop.  Our favorite pizza.  Etc.

As indicated in the Be Ingenious post, we've discovered the Royal Theater in Danville nearby and have been getting concessions from there every other week on Fridays for movie night.  Our little part of showing our interest in keeping these places up and running.

We're really excited that the drive-in movies are reopening here.

The projects have kept us busy and have kept us from feeling trapped.  We've had so much to do, it's been great to focus here.  This past weekend was the first one where we didn't really have a home improvement project.

So, we did a thing.

We dyed our hair.  Well, we temporarily sprayed Jude's.  The rest of us went through the full color process; I've got the bleached hair photographs to prove it.  Now was the time to do it if we were ever going to do so, especially as I will not be heading back into the office physically until August, most likely.  It was a tedious, silly, and fun bonding experience on Sunday.

Other's have noted our hair helps us look like the emotions in Inside Out, so we put a little bit of that above in the photographs.

We've really just used the time to be together.  To be creative.

I did want to share the murals Jamie completed for the kids rooms.  She knocked them out of the park and the kids both love their rooms. 

Jude's took inspiration from the old Disney short A Cowboy Needs A Horse and Avalyn's took inspiration from the Audrey Hepburn canvas seen in the picture of her room.

I guess they really show us in a nutshell.  To find levity, to find optimism in this time, we turn to creative outlets.  It's our nature.  Beyond faith, it is what is keeping us centered.

So, we'll keep looking for fun, silly, creative outlets to throw ourselves into.

In the interm, we'd like to know what you are doing to keep sane in this time?  How are you finding enjoyment?  What brings you happiness in such a time as this?

Opinions - A Reminder

I'm convinced the four most dangerous words in America are "It's just my opinion."

In prior ages, when this phrase was uttered, it was said with a complete understanding of where opinions rank in the grand scheme of things.  It was considered an "humble" opinion for a reason.  They were regulated to Editorial or Opinion sections of the newspaper.  Especially because it was recognized that opinions could and very potentially would be changed.

In society now, opinions are treated as immutable, unchangeable statements of identity.  They are often most loudly and proudly proclaimed when they are in defiance of all other available information.

It's what makes the scene in Inside Out funny.  Where Joy, Sadness, and Bing Bong are on the Train of Thought and get facts and opinions mixed up, quite literally.

Joy: Oh no! These facts and opinions look so similar!
Bing Bong: Don't worry about it.  Happens all the time.

I blame the invention of 24-hour news stations.  Put simply, true news is consisted of facts, verifiable facts, and just the facts.  And the truth about news is that if 24-hour "news" stations only reported news, they would run out of content very early in the day.  To fill time and to provide something that is entertaining and a ratings draw (and therefore a sponsor's dream), such stations fill their days with opinions.  What should be correctly labeled as Editorials.

Let's take a popular context.   If Congress passes a bill, the only thing that is truly news is that the exact words "Congress passed a bill named ...".  Whether the bill is good for the country, whether it has terrible consequences for a certain segment, whether or not you should support your Congressmen for his vote - these are all opinions, not facts.

The constant stream of opinion and the passing of opinion as fact has led us as a society to have a terrible relation with opinions and the truth.  To put it as I have seen written elsewhere, a diet 24-hour news has led to a truth decay in our society.  And lets be honest, all of the 24-hour news channels have contributed to this.  There is not a single one that has truly benefited our understanding as a whole, not even the one that is "fair and balanced."  If you believe this is only a problem for one network or the other, or that there is a major news station that is truly telling only pertinent facts without editorial, you might as well stop reading now and we can talk about a bridge in Arizona I have to sell you.

Our problem is now compounded through the rise of Facebook and "like culture."  The need to create and cultivate our pages where we control the information and surround ourselves by people who affirm our opinions.  That psychological need to see the number of likes we are receiving and to watch that number grow.  It's a constant validation of our opinion and those like us.  Electronic echo chambers, that can continually suck us in.

This has led us to a culture where opinion is king.  To the point of being actually combative to facts.  To the recognition of "alternate facts" (as opposed to outright lies).  "We are creating a world of dummies.  Angry dummies who feel they have the right, the authority and the need not only to comment on everything, but to make sure their voice is heard above the rest and to drag down any opposing views through personal attacks, loud repetition and confrontation."  (Anti-Intellectualism and the Dumbing Down of America).

In light of where we are at as a society, there are a few important things we need to remember about opinions

1) Opinions can be wrong - 
There's the old joke about opinions and how they are similar to a body part.  We all have one and they all stink.  Now while there can be good opinions, it is generally viewed that it is impossible to have a bad opinion or for an opinion to be wrong.  This is not true. You can certainly have a bad opinion.   Your opinion can be wrong.

In this day an age, if you believe the world is flat, your opinion is wrong.  Flat wrong.  It can be easily disproved and there is no rational reason to hold that opinion.  It is in direct contradiction to all available information and facts.  It's a bad opinion.

Additionally, if you have a racist, misogynistic, xenophobic, homophobic, etc. opinion falling into the "all X are ..." camp, your opinion is bad.  If you think that white people are inherently better than black people, brown people, or anyone else, your opinion is wrong.  Or Kanye, if you think that "slavery was a choice" for the African Americans involved, your opinion is wrong.

Opinions can even be wrong in art, where most everything is subjective.  To clarify, an opinion whether a particular piece of art is "good" or "bad" can be wrong, but an opinion on whether you enjoyed a particular piece can not.  "Good" or "bad" can involve identifiable metrics.  Technique, style, composition, form.  There are facts there that can be measured.  Personal enjoyment is just that, personal.  It can only belong to you, whether you enjoy something or not.  So be careful in your movie reviews.

We have to recognize bad opinions and to be able to call people out when they try to hide behind them.  "It's just my opinion" should not cut it anymore.

2) Not all opinions are created equal -
There are levels opinion.  An unsupported opinion is worth less than an informed opinion.  Informed opinions are based on facts, they are based on truths.  Those facts are gathered and synthesized to create the opinion.  Opinions that have no basis in the facts are inherently suspect.  Again, if it is your opinion that the earth is flat, though you have never left your hometown, have not studied the issue, and are only relaying what you observe when you look at the horizon, your opinion is worth less than someone who has flown all around the Earth.

We recognize this with professionals.  There is a reason a doctor's diagnosis is referred to as his or her "professional opinion."   After all, what a doctor does is collect the facts (the symptoms you are relaying and the measurements obtained from tests and lab work in the office) and come to an opinion on the most likely diagnosis.  We recognize that a doctor's opinion is worth more than the average person's on medical issues.  And we afford them that amount of trust.

Or at least we used to.

Our anti-intellectualism is also expressing itself in a demonization of the expert.  We no longer want the person who has the most facts, the most knowledge, the most expertise on the subject because they will be the ones most likely to tell us something we disagree with.  Something that runs counter to our personal biases.  We instead look for someone that just confirms what we already believe.  Confirmation bias.  It's how we get our news.  It's how we share information on social media.  And it's how we are sifting through expert opinion in this time of crisis.

We have to get back to listening to experts.  To appreciating those with more knowledge on the subject.

This also holds true in most every other form of opinion as well, unless it is truly personal preference.  You will likely encounter people who possess more information and knowledge than you do about a particular subject.  Their opinions should have weight.  They are not always right and do not always have to be followed or agreed with, but they should be given space to be heard, absorbed, and considered.

Which brings me to ...

3) Opinions should be constantly evaluated to see if they need be changed -
Opinions are designed to be changed.  Again, the old joke about politicians and diapers seems to fit here as well.  They should be changed and often for the same reason.

Our opinions are designed to be impacted by the information we surround ourselves well.  If you are only ingesting information that affirms your current opinions, that is called stagnation.  It's the opposite of growth.  We are designed as people to be challenged by new ideas, by new data points, new information, and then grow from it.

Our true beliefs, true opinions only gel when they have been tested.  "As iron sharpens iron, so one man sharpens another." (Proverbs 27:17).  The two only sharpen each other when they meet in conflict - blades don't sharpen each other when they are pointed in the same direction.  They have to meet at an angle, from a different perspective, to challenge each other.  To firm up what you truly believe and to change what you do not.  To cut away that which is no longer needed.

If you are only getting your news or information from one source, please start branching out and getting information from a wide net.  I've circulated this infographic before, but it provides a breakdown of news organizations by particular bias.   This page also provides a detailed breakdown of how the original designer came up with the chart and the datapoints that went into it.

At the very least, please recognize the particular bias that your information sources have and start identifying when you are getting facts and when the news personality goes into opinion.

If your circle of friends agree on everything and are all alike, expand and add new friends to your circle.  We need people in our lives that challenge us.  That disagree with us in certain areas, so that we can challenge our own ideas and continue to develop them.  Democrats need Republicans and vice versa.  Calvinists need Arminians and vice versa.  Longhorns need Aggies.

We have to do something now.  We can combat this and we can start to value the truth and facts again.  We just need work at it and keep working.

Just my humble opinion.

Plandemic Problem

I've seen a lot of people sharing or attempting to share a video entitled Plandemic.  The video, a 26 minute preview for their upcoming feature documentary, purports to reveal the truth about the Covid-19 pandemic, from the point of view of a suppressed scientist, Judy Mikovits.  I won't link to it here, because I refuse to spread dubious information.

The video is clearly conspiracy theory fodder.  It paints Judy Mikovits as a hero who has been jailed and silenced for her opposition to a global conspiracy of Big Pharma, national governments, and health organizations.  She is supposedly now able to speak because the five year ban has been lifted.  And she would have us believe that Covid-19 has been planned, it has been released to profit Big Pharma particularly through a yet undeveloped vaccine, and that governments, the World Health Organization, Dr. Fauci, etc., etc., etc. are all implicated.  And of course, it's been going on for years.

She goes on to add beliefs that autism is connected to viruses, to vaccines, and could be cured.  That chronic fatigue syndrome is caused by a virus.  That getting the flu vaccine make you more susceptible to Covid-19.  That our immune systems will crater because of stay in place orders (even after just a couple of weeks).  That there are healing microbes in the beach.

IT'S JUNK SCIENCE.

IT'S CONSPIRACY THEORY.

IT'S FALSE.

A quick google search on Mikovits would reveal that her one study was discredited because no one else could replicate her results.  That is how actual science works - through peer review and confirmation.  She was arrested and jailed for theft from her laboratory, though she would claim her innocence and that it was planted as part of the coverup.

I get it, conspiracy theories are appealing because they bring order to chaos.  They make things sound appealing because it provides a reason why everything is happening.  Even though it is a frightening reason when you consider the possibilities and implications, it still provides a reason compared to our reality where reasons are hard to find.

If you take just one minute to think through the implications, it all falls apart.

Let's put aside the profit angle that this video has.  I mean, it is a preview designed to get people to buy an upcoming documentary on the subject.  It's really trying to sell you on watching.  To scare you into watching, so that you know the "truth."

Just looking at the conspiracy claimed, it's too unbelievable.  Too outlandish.  It claims a global conspiracy - cross governmental, worldwide conspiracy and coverup.  Remember, we are not the only country that is reacting in this manner to this virus.  Lockdowns and stay in place orders are occurring on every continent across the globe.  Why would governments that are politically opposed to our government act in the same fashion, under the same conspiracy?  If this was really occurring, surely there would be countries that would be acting in opposition, right?  I mean, Dr. Fauci couldn't influence Iran?  Russia?  China?  You mean to have me believe everyone is united in this, when they can't be united anywhere else?  And no one else is going to leak it?

Occam's Razor most often wins out.  The simplest answer is usually the right one. What's more likely - all governments acting together under some great Big Pharma conspiracy?  Or all governments not knowing what to do and reacting how they see best given the information they have, looking at other countries for example?  It's scary to think that everyone is just doing their best to adjust and deal with something they were not prepared for, but that's most likely the truest answer.

Conspiracy relies on pointing to topics where we should have a healthy skepticism and stretches that beyond credibility.  Videos like this work, they make you start to accept even their outlandish claims, because they make you latch on to about 20% of the information in them that posits genuine questions.

It's one thing to question.  We should be cautious about the eventual vaccine.*  We need to make sure that it has been thoroughly tested and that its potential side effects are well known before administering it to a population.  That does not equate with believing that any vaccine will be some sort of control mechanism.   Nor does it make all of their other statements in the video true.

Please, please, please, think through these.  Look at them critically.  There will always be people who try to convince you that someone is out to get you.  One of the most disastrous trends in American society is this belief that experts are out to get us.  A distrust of intellectualism.  These people are not on your side.  The will continue to stoke fear, for their own gain, to divide us further, to make us reliant on them.

We can do better.

* Side note - What really bugs me about their vaccine skepticism is that they don't have any internal consistency in their argument.  They would have us distrust any vaccine, because the people that are making it are bad, but we should jump on hydroxychloroquine because of anecdotal evidence and it needs no further testing.